plus. stay with cnbc because the traders talk about the next catch up trades as we wrap up the third quarter and why facebook might be a buy. it all begins right now. have a great night. i will see you tomorrow. stay right there. here comes the fast money traders. investors have some pro right now. >> i was in your town two weeks ago and saw 22 different portfolio managers and only one of them was outperforming the s&p 500 year to date. >> and the fed might be out of bullets. >> will the fed noculate you from a bomb form. >> did apple have a great weekend for the iphone sales? >> i see a challenge. >> our traders are seeing clearly. straight from the trading floors this is "fast money."

>> live from the nasdaq market site i'm melissa lee. another case of the mondays for stocks. caterpillar lowers a 2015 guidance. is the rally at risk given caterpillar seems to have clarity. >> up to this point -- hi, by the way. negative earnings released. today's another good example of that. the market rallied back unchanged. we are going to find out. caterpillar obviously the name. caterpillar traded well this year. caterpillar started around 115ish and managed to trade down to 78 before bouncing. the market has been able to shrug off the stock woes. you need these events to slap everybody back to reality. how they have clarity 2015 is

beyond me. >> the thing about this is if you listen to caterpillar you should get worried if you listen to it in the same sentence of vhp. this is caterpillar saying no longer will we see the global demand that spurred the last five years of this rally. i would be very concerned listening to caterpillar. in terms of share price and valuation i think they have given a sober outlook for 2013. these guys said they are ready to change their view at any time. i would be playing this with the great rally. i think it is vulnerable to this trade. they are not talking about market traders. they are talking about a structural long term view on a sector that people put a lot of faith in. >> at what point can the markets ignore what had been a bell weather in caterpillar? >> the markets can ignore it in terms of performance.

caterpillar hasn't contributed much to the market so far year to date. i think an overall sentiment the cautiousness that you are hearing the comments and hearing the r word talking about the potential for recession and not necessarily believing it will occur but not ruling it out. i think from the sentiment standpoint that is problemt attic. i don't think it will be the day where multiple money managers the story changes and they have to get out. i think they have already gotten out. >> the ceo of caterpillar says the recession would be unlikely that caterpillar would remain profitable in the event of the recession. for every negative in terms of bringing down the 2015 guidance there seems to be a positive in terms of where the market is in that part of the market and economically. >> there is a little bit of a disconnect. i don't know how they have

clarity for 2015. they are talking about capital expensetures for the mining companies being the reason. they lowered their whole range which is a high range already of earnings. we can see that change and idea of the sentiment change between now and then could be very dramatic at multiple times. i don't know what the market will make of it except that we had a very big run. it would not be the least bit surprising to see it not rebound tomorrow and just sell off further and take a number of industrials down with it. >> let's talk about the big run because there was an article indicating that maybe some money managers would start out the last quarter of the year because they made enough money. actually the majority of money managers are under performing their benchmarks. there will be a lot of people

out in the market playing catch up under pressure to meet their returns. we asked tonight what are the best catch up trades that you should be putting on in the fourth quarter. we asked traders that very question. >> there is no question that i think emerging market managers probably lack support. this is going to get into why i think there is a great catch up trade here. emerging markets offer an interesting point. we have going into the fourth quarter earnings that have not gone off but valuations at around 11 times. you are not far off your levels in the start of the rally on the price to book. you have under performed by about 18%. and if we are to believe that the follow through from qe 3 and the bank of japan and probably china, these are risk assets that go straight into emerging markets. this is a case where ekd managers and hedge funds have

outperformed mutual funds where the market dynamics said some of the guys will be chasing what i have seen from a couple. global hedge funds are going into a couple of big deals because they think there may be something left in a merging. >> now i'm going to go a different route for you. defense stocks is here. it is within sort of a whisper of a 52-week high. most of the defense stocks since '09 have traded side ways to slightly higher on what has been a tremendous take for the equity markets. for the geopolitical unrest out there. i think defense stocks could be extremely interesting going forward in the fourth quarter. >> this is a binary trade.

if the fiscal cliff happens there will be defense cuts therefore the defense stocks will suffer. you are playing for the relief. >> there is no way you can have defense cuts. this will be one of the coiled springs situations. >> very smart of you. fourth quarter trade. >> i don't like to do the catch up thing. we are value investors so we have to live with the portfolio that we have. so we are either all in or all out and hope for the worst. we will buy puts which are pretty cheap right now. tremendously so i'm going to stay with my longs unless the thesis changes.

and just be long puts and so i don't know what i'm hoping for to tell you the truth. it is frustrating to have huge up days and huge down days don't do us good either. >> markets are not like sporting events. there is not a fourth quarter comeback for those that are behind right now. if you follow the chase what is not working in essence to try to catch the most up size i think is a recipe for disaster. >> or pull a hammy. >> the places you want to look is you want to look and see what is working. consumer discretionary, a strong auto market. retail is working. financials have worked all year. they will continue to work. and then you look at technology. that is going to work, as well. i don't think you want to look at energy or builders. i don't think you want to look at global industrials and expect a heroic fourth quarter performance. >> how do you separate builders

from technology? builders have been working. >> when you look at what is going on with the builders right now and builders have been a part of the recover ery story that i have not wanted to attach myself in terms of having long positions. what i would rather do in the back of the housing recovery is go second derivative and then go back to the new or you want to call the third cycle here or third derivative of the housing recovery and that is the insurers, the property insurers that are doing well. you can even play it along with all state. you get the combination of property and auto. it is the third derivative. >> facebook taking hits on wall street since its ipo. writing that the stock is only worth $15 a share. last night hollywood got in on the action. >> laughter is the best medicine. we are told facebook was a bargain at $38 a share. one of those is true.

>> you can make that joke to a mainstream audience that hits a cord. gene has an overweight rating on facebook and a $42 price target on the stock. it must feel lonely out there right now. >> it is definitely lonely. it was better last week. today was a tough day. >> what do you make of the action? why are people raetd to get rid of the stock immediately? >> the big issue is the article that pointed out that facebook's valuation is double what google's is. you have to look at where the long term sustainable growth is. if you look at the low line truth that they have and the sense that facebook would trade at a higher multiple because they have levels they haven't hit yet. that is the reason why the stock is down today and it is easy to play into that when you can't see new products coming out.

>> do you think facebook had a more seasoned ceo that could speak to the trade better they wouldn't be getting as basted in terms of media coverage or does that have a way of fixing itself? >> i think at the end of the day what the street really wants to see is for some of the new initiatives to take hold. we think they are going to do that. i think people generally want more from zuckerburg but what they really want is for results. >> it's joe. when you look and reflect on what you have right now for facebook you see others in particular investment banking community jumping away from the story moving to the low to mid 30s. for you holding a $40 price target how long do you give the stock in terms of recovery and rebound before you join forces and lower it, as well? >> we want to see what this quarter looks like. if this doesn't play out what we

are expecting from the 35% year of growth we will have to reevaluate. we feel comfortable they can deliver that. if they don't deliver on september we will rethink. apple sales topping $5 million. you worry about expecting more and that caused the stock to decline in today's session. in terms of how we view that 5 million number some are saying all that counts is physical delivery of the phone. if you haven't gotten the phone it doesn't count. there are millions more in the pipeline that are about to be delivered to customers so the number could come up. how do you interpret the 5 million? >> the 5 million doesn't tell the story. the headline doesn't tell the story. there are two important take aways. we know that the initial demand for online orders is 2 x what it

was for the 4 s. you said it was 5 million. we know that number got off to a rocket start when they started doing online orders. we know that there are supply constraints that we measured that this weekend and called the stores on saturday and sunday. i think that unfortunately i got this wrong and ultimately i didn't have all the information about the supply going into us making that call along with other analysts. these things are understandable. the bottom line is the iphone 5 lived up to huge expectations. >> i agree with you. unless you think the delay will cause people to switch and buy another phone instead i don't think it matters whether the earnings come. what do you think is enough time to see the supply issues work their way through so we get a true sense of the demand of the phone? >> probably will take a good quarter to two quarters. this is a surprise. it's harder for them to make

these phones and probably the most optimistic cases will be a supply and demand. the probability that they jump to an android phone is about 6%. there is not a lot of risk that they lose these sales. >> anybody a buyer on this pull back of apple? >> we are talking about quarter end trades. this is a trade where i think you have to cut and run on a lot of guys. guys chased it up and will be running rchlt i think at the end of the week it is uglier. >> i think there are hedge funds that will be cutting and getting out. i don't think they neetd to show it. they care about making money. >> critical word cutting and pairing back. >> the one-on-one interview with

morgan stanley's president of wealth management. our trade of the day. later on we will lift this curtain and reveal what the trade is. it's a play that is sure to deliver. [ male announcer ] when a major hospital wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. [ yawning sound ] oh, hey alex.

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morning stanley dropping smith barney tomorrow. head of morgan stanley wealth management spoke to mary anne thompson about his vision to the new plan. >> fleming says the new ad campaign is part of the effort to get everyone behind the

brand. getting there hasn't been easy. the largest ever brokerage integration. fleming acknowledges more work needs to be done while remaining confident he can keep the key players on the team. >> i have spoken to a number of people and there were a lot of complaints about this integration in large part about the problems associated with the new technologies that was introduced. are those problems behind you right now? >> it is a new car. it doesn't have a lot of the bells and whistles that it needs. there are things like the longer statement. things haven't worked as quickly as they need to for clients. we are very aware of that and focused on making sure we add the features back to the new car and not all of it will happen in the first month or three months but over time we'll add more and more of the features so it has

the functionality that it needs. >> do you put a lot of credence in the idea that there could be some kind of exodus because of concerns about the system and how concerned are you about that? >> we are listening very carefully about the concerns and issues and things they need to help us address. they have had businesses that they have invested in and they built and own the coverage of the clients for a long time. they want us to make sure we are helping nourish that and not having clients that want to see a different statement. they don't want to do it somewhere else. they want to be here. i can feel that from talking to them. >> what is it that they want? there are reports that some may bring lawsuits against morgan stanley. do they want different retention clauses? do they want bigger bonuses? >> they are not looking for any of those things. these advisers are looking to make sure that the technology platform works on a day to day

basis. >> more on squawk box and more with greg fleming where he talks about buying the 35% that morgan still doesn't own sooner rather than later. >> as you know the s&p 500 up more than 14% since early june. the question is how long can this rally last? let's hit some slow money strategies with the chief market strategiest at banyan. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> the key to whether or not this ral ey continues is the earnings for q 3. will it be enough? have estimates started coming down? >> i don't think we have fully seen that really factored in. i think this coming quarter will be very similar to the past quarter. there is a lot of expectations that companies weren't going to be able to sort of fulfill their

promises and analyst estimates being taken down so much companies were able to beat and you saw growth. that is what is probably going to happen. between now and then you will start to hear more concerns about the overall economy and the economic news and what is going on in europe and whether or not china can deliver on the stimulus and whether or not qe 3 has to be expanded. this is a bit crazy. if anybody was sort of trading on whether or not qe 3 would be the end all be all they should be ashamed of themselves. if you take a look at what has transpired over the last three month tlz has been a lot of positives that vpant been fully factored into the overall market. near time i think this market probably gives back a little bit of what we saw recently. i think that is going to be your opportunity in the more defensive higher dividend yielding stocks to sort of get out and start to rotate into the

early cyclicals. >> what you are describing is a 2012 rally more about multiple expansion taking it from thurman muncen to somewhere rather -- screwed that one up. what about what you see now takes it above or gets it to 15 or north of 15 because it has been multiple expansions? >> what you are going to need to see is more clarity and less concerns. that is exactly what we started to see. european picture has the gotten a bit better. we have a back stop. everybody is talking about whether or not spain is going to ask for help. they know the alternative. they know the alternative is going to be actually defaulting on their debt. so they are eventually going to have to ask for debt. people are starting to ask about greece. greece is a small country. you don't have to pay that much attention to it. if the ecb set up this program

to back stop the debt why wouldn't they help greece. short term we have the concerns about earnings. earnings are going to be relatively okay. it is going to be enough to deliver on the market. and then what is the next concern? the next concern is the election. we are going to get a president no matter what. it is either obama or romney. and then for the next four years we are okay. so we have to face the fiscal cliff. what is going to happen with the fiscal cliff? it is in nobody's best interest to see a recession for 2013 or beyond so you know there will be a compromise in congress between the time of the election and maybe the first month of the next year. >> let me ask you about an allocation. caterpillar. 2015 they don't see the world needing the same type of mining

equipment. if you look at commodity valuations we talked about early cyclicals. what is the slow money called? we have some saying it doesn't look so great. >> you are going to have to focus more on the longer term. you can't invest for the long term if you're an investor by focusing on what caterpillar is going to do. now is your opportunity to tow into a caterpillar. caterpillar is where you want to start to tow in. a name like cliff natural resources early cyclical baks material stock is going to be an area to tow in. it is not a tremendous turn around short term. long term investor these companies play wonderful dividends. these are areas you want to take a look at. >> great to see you.

so -- >> paints a rosy picture. >> do you buy that picture? >> everything will work out just fine. >> he makes a good point that there are certain scenarios and you will get more comfort with this market. >> i want things to work out. we need to point out the possibility that things don't go as swimmingly as everybody would like them to go. i'm still of the belief that the head winds have been tremendous. this is a market that has not been built on fundamentals but built on this belief that you have an accommodative fed that will be there forever. understood. at some point it goes away. it has worked for a while. i believe the market can still go higher from here. you have to understand what you're dealing with. how's that? >> well said. >> options desk, want to chime in? >> i'm with guy a little bit. i think you have to be a little

worried. if you look at the vix between 13 and 18 for several months. you can't by protection on your portfolio all the time. i think you just have to have a little protection in the form of puts or put spreads right here given where we are on the calendar and what the market has done so far this year. got to take a break here. nothing but sweet music for one internet stock today. we are trading all the days big movers next. one casino stock has fallen on hard times and one share harder speaking out on what it would take to turn it around. stick around to get that story. want to try to crack it? yeah, that's the way to do it!

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time for pops and drops and movers you might have missed. we kick it off with a drop for intel down 9%. >> we talked about pc cannibalization. tablets is the way to go. intel continues to trade lower. these are one of the names that has under performed. >> pop for barnes and noble up 6%.

>> a little bit of the debt cap bounce. the only thing i can think of is wal-mart is not carrying the kindle. i don't know what else it can be. i am not optimistic of barnes and noble. >> pop for tenet health care. >> these hospitals have been unbelievable. i think it made a new 52-week high. it continues to go higher. it is interesting that karen broke it up because thank god that the bronx zoo did not euphonize that tiger and that jerk decided to go into the tigers home and defends himself. >> if they euphonize that tiger she will publicly protest. >> pop for joy global. >> maybe looking at the tiger.

makes people believe they have to be in the space after caterpillar's announcement i don't think ge is listening to caterpillar. >> a pop for rambus up 17%. >> a patent lawsuit they filed 12 years ago against the korean firm. the 52-week chart is still really, really, really ugly. >> a pop for the bronx zoo tiger. a drop for crocodiles in a plane. an australian airline worker was shocked to find that a crocodile had escaped and wandering around the cargo and it was returned to the crate. >> that's ridiculous. >> that would have snatched him right up. >> people travel with their

dogs. pop for tivo. >> this is one of the wall street moments where you take the money and run in this thing. we have to take the money and run. >> drop for alphanatural. >> coal equals sell. >> pop for pandora up 3%. >> really? >> pandora. >> the music company with the p. they should give the p back. they don't deserve the p. there are multiple companies better than pandora that deserve the p. >> translator: if you look at the hui this was down about 3.5%. look at the dollar and look at the snapback and risk assets today. >> drop for jc penney down 4%. >> coming to me again.

>> there was a mix up. >> i'm more familiar with that. it is down close to 5% today. i didn't see any particular reason but as people maybe let that johnson presentation mar nate a little bit it is very tough going for jc penney. >> i love mareinating. roast. >> speaking of it i have a marination question. >> tigers don't -- >> there is a reason he is hanging out. >> don't get on the tiger. >> do you have an answer before we move on on why the tiger didn't eat the man. >> it says something about the gentleman that did not make him -- >> not tasty i guess.

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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq. let's check in on the poll of the day. the results are in. what does ceo mayor need to do to make you yahoo?

like us at facebook.com/fastmoney. the back draft to this is marissa mayer is expected to talk to the troops tomorrow and outline what she sees. where options traders are seeing the stock going. >> people like what they think they are going to hear. much of what they will hear is what the poll described. we expect to hear that home page will be redesigned. we expect to hear more about mail as well as search and advertising. people think this will do great things for the stock. the quarterly 16 calls this friday they bought 5,000 of the 16 calls and paid 11 cents. that means if the break even is

16.11 and expect the move to be higher. these expire at the close on friday. >> do you see reason to be in yahoo unless you are willing to make a long term bet on marissa mayer. the other was return of capital. >> i would be more inclined to buy yahoo. i have played yahoo over the past couple of months from the long side. i love the hire. i think you have the right management team in place. i think when you look at what you are going to hear tomorrow the sustainability of whatever the message will be you will know that over the next couple of weeks. two weeks it is still trading 16 i think you buy it. shares of las vegas stumbling.

joining us now is jonathan. great to see you. your background for most people following this area is redemos. you come at this with an exper tease tees in this area. >> the number one ranked. i'm a property guy. what jumped out to us is it is a real estate company at the end of the day. they own malls and hotels and casinos. when we looked at other situatioike earlier this year we have been following it. we have been involved for many years. american tower. those have been terrific stocks. it is one of the best

opportunities we have seen in a long time. if you take the mall portfolio and convert it it will be the most productive growing at 15%. the lodging portfolio. i have been doing lodging since the mid 90s. you spin that out of the company it is 16 or 17 times. we have lots of comps at that level. you are left with pure gaming business traded at 18 times historically. we are saying let's say that goes to 13. that will have three great growth businesses in it. >> clearly controls the situation. so is there some tax reason that it would be less beneficial to own the structure than stock? >> i have been looking at these situations for 15 plus years. if you have a management team that is preceptive it is going to happen. he sold his malls in 2004.

he spun out china unlike other guys in this. see how you can do this on a tax efficient basis. we have done these before. we have done it again and we think there are ways to do it which would be very tax efficient. >> assuming 80% of valuations, why is this stock trading at such a tremendous discount? you would think the street would catch on or get wind of this, as well? >> if you look at it we have been at it for a long time. people are looking at it as a tech company. they are not looking at it as a real estate company. at the end of the day it is a real estate company. people were worried about china. their business in china has grown 25%. >> are you long specifically on the thesis the belief that it will break up into three and

unlock that value? how far are you willing to take this because you are a share holder in this stock? do you plan to escalate this further? >> we think it is a terrific growth company. it may be a spinout. it may not be a spinout. we have been talking about it regularly. i was at singapore looking at the assets with management. i believe they are preceptive to it and i think they will consider doing it. >> a lot of money managers look at it as a growth company and an income company. do you see them getting much more aggressive than they have been considering they have a fair amount of cash on the balance sheet? >> it is at a unique point in time. it was always strapped for cash. today they have almost no debt on the company. it is a $70 billion company. i think that you make two reads and they will have very attractive dividend yields in an environment where the market is starved for yield.

i don't advocate special dividends. put a nice yield on it and grow that 15% to 20% in a year. >> thanks so much for stopping by. fascinating report. hope you come back sometime soon. coming up next why looking down under could be your best move for finding up side in the currency market right now.

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market. traders wait to see if spain will seek a bailout. let's bring in amelia. are there certain guidelines which would trigger spain to act anytime soon? >> well, the market has priced in that spain will get the bailout. as you said the ecb announced september 6th the bailout kind of bond buying plan details. euro rose steadily to where we are now. now we are stalled out. basically it has been trading from 132 to 129 the figure. there are regional elections in spain in mid october and releasing the budget at the end of the week. spain is waiting for those events to happen before they apply for a bailout. if they don't then i think spanish yields will rise significantly. the pain trade for spain is no

bailout and lower euro. >> probably looking for a risk posture going into the month of october but instead of selling euro you are looking to sell ausi. >> i refer relative value because i think euro is stuck in the range. the reserve bank of australia meets in the evening. i want to enter the short trade at 1.27 and looking for a move down to 1.2540 and put a stop at 1.2770. >> coming up next one of our traders has a packaged deal you won't want to miss. we are shipping out our trade of the day. stick around to find out what is behind this curtain right after this. you are a business pro. monarch of marketing analysis. with the ability to improve roi through seo

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welcome back to "fast money." i have a quick market flash for you on google hitting new all time highs today in the session and in the after hours session trading at 750 up about .1%.

what the break down is bullish on the name raising the price target. positive on the stock because it is stream lining the mobility unit and saying it might be willing to sell its home segments. those are two reasons to like google. >> thank you very much. what do you do with google at this point? >> i would take a look at money calls and see if there is anything pumped up there. >> classic example of the performance. the run has been entirely in the third quarter. this is a stock that was down significantly for the year. i think this is end of quarter window dressing, folks wanting to have the name on their sheets. >> it suffered when facebook went public. >> the ranking. >> it is time now for the moment you have all been waiting for,

the trade of the day. so, guy. >> it's -- i keep talking and they unveil. that's not the trade of the day. it was a great song when i was a kid. >> you were for one day. you shadowed. you wore the uniform and took pictures. >> i did work. >> we are running out of time. >> go ahead. >> things that make you go hmm. the transport was higher on what was a lousy take. that is interesting. i looked at fed ex which had reversed and traded higher and held the june 5 low. you have a great base from which to trade this stock. if you elong ate that chart you'll see exactly what i'm talking about. you trade against the june 5 low. fed ex sometimes you have to say the price action is such that

maybe you can have a relief rally in the stock. with a very defined stock fed ex is your trade of the day. >> sure. >> there is no reason. >> you're not in it. >> we have a whole footage of me. >> you didn't get paid, though. >> that's the type of guy i am. >> thank you for jour services. coming up on "mad money" cramer has the ceos of dress barn. and giving your portfolio snap, crackle and pop. we have your first move tomorrow. we come right back. [ mujahid ] there was a little bit of trepidation,

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